Why shortages now: The Iran war has disrupted Group III base oil supplies, a critical ingredient in synthetic lubricants, leading to warnings from AutoZone, Toyota, and major oil companies.

Immediate effects: Drivers may face higher prices, reduced selection, delayed restocking, and rationing of certain motor oil grades, particularly lighter viscosities used in newer vehicles.

Long-term outlook: Industry experts expect supply strains to persist through 2027, with risks of panic buying and volatile prices if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.The ongoing U.S.-Israeli war on Iran has significantly disrupted the supply of Group III base oil, a key ingredient in synthetic motor oils. This conflict has sidelined approximately 44% of the U.S. supply of this material, creating a substantial supply chain shock.Brent crude oil prices have risen to $109.50 in the wake of the Iran conflict. This increase reflects market reactions to geopolitical tensions affecting global oil supply.Repair shops have reported increases in motor oil prices. These price hikes are occurring alongside supply constraints and are affecting operational costs for service providers.If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, analysts predict that supply strains in the lubricant market could worsen, potentially keeping the market undersupplied through 2027.