Anyone following warnings of “Russian escalation” in recent weeks could be forgiven for being thoroughly confused. On the one hand, the reports of new and alarming Russian plots come thick and fast – Spanish media last week reported possible use of Vladimir Putin‘s “shadow fleet” to launch attack drones against Southern Europe.

On the other hand, some of the countries that might seem most at risk from Russian attack, frontline states including Finland and Estonia, are urging calm and saying there is no immediate cause for greater concern.

The mixed picture is in part because of the wide range of choices Russia has if it does continue stepping up its campaign against Europe.

Actions such as a land incursion into a frontline state in the Baltic Sea region, or a drone and missile attack on Poland, would be indistinguishable from Russia launching open warfare on its neighbours.

But Russia could also develop its more furtive programme of attacks across the rest of Europe, targeting countries including France, Italy and Britain with actions that are closer in nature to low-grade state terrorism.

The picture painted in the media is as vague as it is alarming.

There’s no doubt that Russia is willing to conduct more and more dangerous attacks against countries in the Mediterranean and beyond. That’s a process that has been evolving over years, as Russia finds that it can act more and more provocatively without – it seems – any discernible reaction from European nations that would cause it to stop. When people start talking about Russian sabotage and murder as a new problem, I point them to the book I wrote five years ago about Moscow’s campaigns across Europe in the previous decade.

The shadow fleet drone plot serves as a case study. The Spanish newspaper El Mundo described at length Russian plans to mount Gerbera attack drones in containers on vessels belonging to its illegal fleet of tankers, to launch them against France, Spain and Italy.

Gerberas have been used in Russia’s offensive against Ukraine. They have a lighter payload than the jet-powered Gerans that have been causing increasing headaches for Ukrainian defenders – but still carry enough explosives to pose a serious threat to European infrastructure, and trigger disruption in countries that had previously considered themselves far enough away from the front line not to be affected by Russia’s war.

The plot was disclosed following what’s been widely described as a warning to those countries from the CIA, although both France and Italy denied receiving any specific warning from the US.

And there have already been plenty of other demonstrations that Russia feels emboldened to carry out more and more dangerous and provocative attacks deep into Europe.

This month, French President Emmanuel Macron called leaders from across the political spectrum into the country’s crisis centre for a briefing on Russian threats that reportedly left even the most sceptical pale and shaken.

That may be precisely because they had previously imagined that lying at the far end of Europe from Russia, France was not in immediate danger. But that overlooks Russia’s long-term investment in delivering damage at enormous distances, not only by means of drones from ships, or missiles with ranges of thousands of kilometres, but also through cyber and proxy attacks. That investment means Russia has the option of striking not just at those parts of Nato that it can drive to, but at the weakest, softest parts of the alliance to undermine it as a whole – exactly the premise of Sky TV’s constructed reality series The Wargame, which saw shocked former British politicians realising just what this meant for the UK.

Explaining what is going on to the public, in a way that leaves them alert but not terrified, is challenging – in part because of this wide range of options Russia can choose from. The question “will Russia attack” is unhelpful because the word “attack” can mean everything from a barely conceivable, full-blown invasion of a Nato country, to what is already happening, like sponsoring more and bigger proxy and cyber attacks far behind the front lines.

That’s why it’s vital to separate the two. Denmark’s Defence Intelligence Service has publicly released its assessment that there are no signs Russia is preparing for an “invasion” of another neighbour, but that the risk of some other form of military attack is “low but growing”.

The report also tackles the important question of why Russia would want to do this. One widely quoted motivation for Moscow to target European countries is to deter citizens and politicians from supporting Ukraine. If that’s true, the best response will be to increase assistance to Kyiv – thereby not only helping to keep Ukrainians alive, but also demonstrating to Moscow that its attacks on Europe defeat its objective.

Whatever the reasons, it’s more vital than ever for civilians in the UK and Europe to be aware of the threat – and by being alert to it, do their part in countering it. Sunday morning’s arrests in a small village near RAF Fairford in Gloucestershire, with the involvement of counter-terrorism police and explosives experts, show the threat of hostile action in the UK is real.

It’s not yet clear who instigated that plot, but the range of possible actors is alarmingly broad – both Russia and Iran, as well as homegrown far-left extremists – all have motivations for targeting or disrupting American operations from Fairford. Counter-terror police are understood to be investigating whether Iran is linked. Tehran has threatened to target military bases in the UK after US warplanes took off from these sites to strike Iran earlier this year. However, inquiries have yet to rule out Russian or domestic activity.

We are now in a more dangerous world, whether we like it or not, and the best way to counter threats like “Russian escalation” is to deter them in advance, and be ready for them if deterrence fails. That must be a key part of the “national conversation on defence” that the Government is supposed to have started. As yet, there’s no visible sign of it having done so – but both the Mediterranean drone plot and Sunday’s arrests near Fairford show how urgent and vital it is to help European publics understand that home defence involves them all.