A senior Texas Republican used a national Sunday show to warn that Democratic Senate nominee James Talarico’s positions would damage the state, injecting fresh heat into one of the most closely watched Senate contests in the country.

Van Duyne Brands Talarico a ‘DSA Candidate’

U.S. Rep. Beth Van Duyne, who has held the Dallas-Fort Worth-based 24th Congressional District since being elected in 2020 and sits on the House Ways and Means Committee, appeared on The Hill Sunday and described Talarico as functioning like a card-carrying nominee of the Democratic Socialists of America. Pressed further by host Chris Stirewalt, she didn’t soften the point: “His views would kill Texas,” she said.

Van Duyne pointed to Talarico’s advocacy for transgender youth, his economic proposals, and what she characterized as an anti-Christian undertone in his politics as evidence he’s out of step with most Texans. But The Hill’s reporting found the DSA label doesn’t hold up — Talarico has never belonged to the organization. His actual legislative footprint includes fighting Texas’s ban on most gender-affirming care for minors and urging colleagues to block further restrictions on transgender children.

The 37-year-old Austin state representative has leaned heavily on his religious identity throughout the campaign. He’s a Presbyterian seminarian working toward a Master of Divinity at Austin Presbyterian Theological Seminary — not yet ordained — and has repeatedly argued that Christian teaching calls for protecting marginalized people, not excluding them. That framing helped him survive a hard-fought Democratic primary against Dallas Rep. Jasmine Crockett in March, where he prevailed by a margin that landed near 53%–46% in early counts and settled around 52%–46% once results were finalized. The next night, addressing supporters after the race was officially called, Talarico declared, “We’re about to take back Texas.”

An Opponent Riding Momentum — With Baggage

Talarico’s general-election rival, Attorney General Ken Paxton, secured the Republican nomination in a lopsided May runoff, routing four-term Sen. John Cornyn by roughly 28 points after President Trump endorsed Paxton in the campaign’s final stretch, according to Texas Tribune reporting. It was the first time an incumbent Texas senator had lost renomination since 1970. Paxton, who was acquitted in a 2023 impeachment trial and has faced a string of separate legal controversies, has argued his standing will hold once voters take a harder look at his opponent, saying he’s “convinced that Texans will reject what he’s pushing” as Talarico comes under scrutiny.

Latino Voters Emerge as a Swing Bloc

The race’s outcome may hinge partly on Hispanic voters, who represent roughly a fifth of the state’s midterm electorate. Recent survey data cited by Axios found Talarico running far ahead of Paxton with Latino voters — a striking reversal from 2024, when Trump carried the same bloc statewide by double digits. If that pattern holds through November, it would mark a meaningful shift in a demographic Republicans have counted on to offset Democratic strength in Texas’s cities.

Too Close to Call

Polling has whipsawed all summer. A run of surveys this summer — including releases from Texas Southern University and Fox News, tracked by Axios — each showed Talarico with a narrow edge. That trend broke this month: an Emerson College poll put Paxton ahead 47%–46%, essentially a dead heat, while a separate survey tracked by the Texas Tribune’s polling average also showed Paxton up by a single point, snapping Talarico’s streak.

Forecasting models remain split. Decision Desk HQ rates the contest a genuine coin flip, tilting slightly toward Talarico, while the Pollsmax model gives Paxton roughly a four-in-five chance of winning and projects a mid-single-digit Republican margin.

That volatility helps explain why Van Duyne — a U.S. House member weighing in on a statewide race she isn’t part of — chose to make her case on national television. She argued that despite Talarico’s unconventional positions, they’re unlikely to be enough to flip a state Republicans have carried in every Senate election since 1988, even as she acknowledged the race remains unsettled with more than two months left before voters decide.