Former Federal Reserve economist Claudia Sahm warned against a possible diesel ban on Sunday after President Donald Trump said he was “very seriously” considering a U.S. ban on diesel exports to ease elevated gas prices.

Trump Points to Refinery Buildout, Russia-Ukraine War

Speaking to reporters while attending the Presidents Cup golf tournament final near Chicago, Trump said he’s “looking at it very seriously” on a diesel export ban but acknowledged it “can oftentimes lead to a little bit of an increase in gasoline for cars.”

He pointed to new refineries under construction nationwide, though those won’t come online for about a year.

Trump blamed much of the diesel shortage on Ukraine’s strikes on Russian refineries, saying he told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to “take it easy” on the targets, and renewed his prediction oil prices would fall “way down” once the war with Iran ends.

‘Seriously Don’t’

Sahm, responding to Trump’s comments, simply said in a post on X, “seriously don’t,” joining a chorus of economists and industry voices warning the move could raise prices rather than lower them.

Economist Justin Wolfers said in a blog published on Thursday that a temporary ban “doesn’t force refiners to flood America with bargain diesel tomorrow” and would instead squeeze refining margins.

“Diesel isn’t expensive because America exports it. Diesel is expensive because the world is short of diesel,” Wolfers wrote, adding that the plan “could make life harder for folks like you and me by raising what we pay for gas.”

Higher Pump Prices

The national average for diesel is at $6.4709 a gallon, down slightly from $6.51 a week ago but up 76% from $3.6876 a year ago, according to AAA.

Gasoline was at $4.4798 a gallon, roughly flat from a week ago but up 43% from $3.1375 a year ago.

GasBuddy’s Patrick De Haan said Trump’s own admission that a ban could raise gasoline prices shows “some awareness of what analysts have been cautioning.”

Energy Secretary Chris Wright has previously said a ban would be ineffective and could raise gasoline and jet fuel prices by forcing refiners to cut production once storage fills, telling Reuters the administration is instead looking at “the most efficient way to get more diesel into the United States of America, and continue maximum flows of gasoline and jet fuel.”