As Texas emerges as a new midterm battleground, a new poll published on Thursday found Republican Governor Greg Abbott’s lead over Democrat Gina Hinojosa grew, while Republican Ken Paxton fell further behind Democrat James Talarico.

Democrats have their eyes set on the Lone Star State for the November elections. Although Texas has for decades voted reliably Republican, polling suggests it could be more competitive this year as President Donald Trump’s declining national approval rating could drive down support for Republicans.

Still, Texas is a difficult state for Democrats. It backed Trump by 14 points in 2024 and hasn’t elected a Democrat to statewide office since the 1990s. Democrats grew hopeful about the state’s trends in the 2010s as suburban areas near Austin, Dallas and Houston drifted leftward, but the state snapped back to Republicans due to Democrats’ collapse with Hispanic voters.

The midterms are a critical test for Texas Democrats and will gauge whether they can claw back support in both the suburbs and among Hispanic voters, or whether Republicans will be able to keep the state solidly conservative.

Abbott has been viewed as the favorite against Hinojosa, a state representative, though some polls point to a tightening race. But the Senate race between Paxton, the state’s attorney general, and Talarico, a state representative, is expected to be one of the most competitive races this year.

Newsweek reached out to the Abbott, Hinojosa, Paxton and Talarico campaigns for comment via email.

Abbott Gains Ground, While Paxton Support Slips

The new survey from Texas Public Opinion Research (TPOR) found a widening divide between Abbott and Paxton, the two Republicans who will be leading the ballot this year. In the poll, Paxton underperformed Abbott by 13 points.

Such an underperformance would be a problem for Paxton, Brandon Rottinghaus, professor of political science at the University of Houston, told Newsweek.

“A double-digit gap between Paxton and Abbott suggests this isn’t simply a generic Republican problem; it’s a Paxton problem. His controversies, high unfavorable ratings, bruising primary and difficulty winning independents are preventing him from fully benefiting from Texas’ Republican baseline,” he said.

The poll surveyed 1,000 likely voters from August 21 to 24, 2026 and had a margin of error of ±3.3 percentage points.

Abbott held a 7-point lead over Hinojosa, 49 percent to 42 percent, with 7 percent undecided and 2 percent saying they would vote for other candidates.

It’s Abbott’s strongest showing in any poll since June and marks his strongest showing in TPOR polling. In July, the pollster gave him a 3-point lead, 45 percent to 42 percent. He led by 5 points in both May, 46 percent to 41 percent, and April, 48 percent to 43 percent.

On the other hand, Talarico held a 6-point lead over Paxton, 48 percent to 42 percent, with 7 percent undecided and 1 percent voting for Libertarian Ted Brown.

That’s Paxton’s worst showing in the poll.

Talarico led by 5 points, 45 percent to 40 percent, in July and 3 points, 47 percent to 44 percent, in May. In April, he held a 5-point lead over Paxton, 46 percent to 41 percent.

Paxton Faces Tight Race, But Abbott Is Favored

Elections forecasters have expected Paxton to face a tighter race than Abbott, a well-established incumbent who has won by large margins in the past. Abbott has faced criticism from Democrats in the state but has still been able to retain support from Republicans, which is critical in a state like Texas that has a stronger GOP base.

Paxton has less of a grip on the GOP base in Texas, according to polling. The TPOR showed that 80 percent of Republicans are voting for Paxton, compared to 90 percent for Abbott. Overall, the poll found that Paxton is viewed less favorably than other Texas politicians. Abbott’s favorability stood at +2, while Paxton’s was -15 points.

Paxton has faced a series of personal scandals. In 2023, the Texas House impeached him over articles alleging bribery and abuse of public trust after an investigation around a proposed whistleblower lawsuit settlement. It involved several of Paxton’s former aides who said they were fired after accusing the attorney general of accepting bribes and other misconduct.

Paxton denied any wrongdoing and was later acquitted by the Texas Senate. He has described the impeachment as a “weaponization of our political system” that was “designed to intimidate, bankrupt, silence, and punish me for representing the voters instead of the entrenched political establishment.”

He has also recently faced scrutiny over a Waco plea deal offered by prosecutors under Paxton to a man accused of repeatedly sexually abusing a young boy.

The Cook Political Report classifies the Senate race as a toss-up, but the gubernatorial race as Likely Republican.

Ken Paxton Underperforms Greg Abbott in Other Polls

Other recent polls similarly show that Texas could become more competitive this year.

A University of Texas/Texas Politics Project survey released earlier this week showed Talarico up 3 points over Paxton, 42 percent to 39 percent, while Abbott led Hinojosa by 5 points, 45 percent to 40 percent. That would mark an 8-point underperformance by Paxton.

It polled 1,200 registered voters from August 5 to 13, 2026 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.58 percentage points.

An Emerson College poll showed a more modest underperformance of 3 points. Paxton led Talarico by 1 point, 47 percent to 46 percent, while Abbott led Hinojosa by 4 points, 49 percent to 45 percent, in that survey. It surveyed 1,000 likely voters from August 9 to 10, 2026, with a margin of error of ±3 percentage points.

The TexasPulse poll, conducted by the Texas A&M Bush School and ReconMR, showed Talarico up 4 points over Paxton, 47 percent to 43 percent, and Abbott up just one point over Hinojosa, 46 percent to 45 percent. It surveyed 619 likely Texas voters from July 27 to 30, 2026.

Could Republicans Lose Texas This Year?

Rottinghaus said the Senate race is “genuinely competitive,” while the gubernatorial race is “competitive by Texas standards” but that Abbott is still favored.

The state looks more competitive this year because of frustration over the economy and the Trump administration, he said. He pointed to growth in the cities and suburbs, awakened support among younger voters and a shift among Latino voters giving Democrats a “larger pool” of potentially competitive voters this year.

“That doesn’t necessarily mean Texas has suddenly become a blue state—it means Republicans have less room for error than they used to,” he said.

Texas has not been particularly competitive over the past few election cycles despite Democrats’ hopes that it could flip. They came close in 2018, when then-Representative Beto O’Rourke, a Democrat, nearly unseated GOP Senator Ted Cruz. O’Rourke lost by only about 3 points, 51 percent to 48 percent.

But that has been a high point for Democrats in Texas in recent elections. Democrats have tried, but failed, to match O’Rourke’s performance in recent years.

Democrats have believed blue-shifting suburbs could bring the state toward purple territory, and Texas did become more competitive in the 2010s. Republican margins shrank from nearly 16 points in 2012 to 9 points in 2016 to less than 6 in 2020.

But Democrats lost ground in 2024 as Republicans made more inroads with Hispanic and Latino voters. Democrats see signs that those voters might shift back toward them this year—a recent poll shows Democrats leading in three Latino-majority districts Trump won in 2024, and polls have shown Trump’s approval rating among Latino voters has collapsed.

What’s Next

With the election less than three months away, campaigns are expected to ramp up advertising, fundraising and voter outreach efforts as they make their final push to turn out supporters.

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