“Regarding the Russian side, it is evident that President Putin has lost hope of fundamentally determining Ukraine’s political future and must admit this. He is now seeking territorial gains solely to present them as some form of victory at home,” Ferguson said.

Read also: Putin relying on massive long-range strikes to force Ukraine to surrender by 2027 — ISW

The historian noted that the central and most difficult strategic dilemma facing Ukrainian leadership is determining whether territorial concessions are acceptable in exchange for enduring peace. Should the active conflict freeze along existing frontlines, Ferguson maintained that establishing a robust, durable security architecture remains entirely feasible.

“I believe there is solid ground to trust that Europe and the United States remain committed to Ukraine’s survival, and it is in both European and American national interests for Ukraine to thrive as a strong, successful economy,” he explained.

“Therefore, in my view, your military achievements must be converted into economic achievements, which serves everyone’s interests. Nobody benefits from a Ukrainian defeat except Russia — and that reality underpins the viability of creating this security architecture.”

Ferguson underlined that Western capitals have zero incentive to permit a scenario where fighting restarts in a decade leading to Ukraine’s subjugation.

“There is a very favorable incentive structure in place to ensure this peace holds, and within ten years, Putin will be out of politics,” Ferguson concluded.

“Let us not forget that time is on Ukraine’s side: Ukraine will live, while Putin will die.”

Read also: Former intelligence chief: Putin faces rising risk as inner circle gains influence

In an analytical report published on Sept. 26, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) observed that Ukraine’s tactical battlefield counter-maneuvers throughout 2026 may force Putin to discard his foundational “theory of victory.” Instead of pursuing sweeping ground encirclements, the Kremlin is increasingly defaulting to long-range strategic missile and drone campaigns against critical utility grids in an attempt to freeze Kyiv into capitulation ahead of winter.